S9 AHL Playoff Picture

The trade deadline is almost here and playoffs are right around the corner. As teams scramble to fill their last minute needs with Calder dreams in mind we need to take a look at who the potential contenders are for this season's coveted Calder Cup. To do this, I ran a simulation of the remaining schedule and calculated the results for each team. Oh yeah, I did this 100 times as well ya know for legitimacy.

The simulation was done by:
-assuming a 50/50 chance of winning any game (figuring out actual percentages would have been way too damn difficult) so in every game the away team and home team have a 50% chance of winning
-overtime losses were not accounted for as a part of this
-compiling all 100 simulations data into one set of numbers (yeah i know...yikes it was boring)
-this data then figured out a "magic number" of the estimated points needed to guarantee a playoff spot

Here are the results of the simulation as to each teams playoff chances:

Atlantic (magic number 103 points)
1. Penguins - 100%
2. Checkers - 96%
3. Wolf Pack - 91%
4. Thunderbirds - 78%
5. Lehigh Valley - 26%
6. Sound Tigers - 16%
7. Bruins - 0%
8. Bears - 0%

North (magic number 98 points)
1. Comets - 100%
2. Senators - 100%
3. Americans - 97%
4. Marlies - 80%
5. Rocket - 19%
6. Devils - 8%
7. Monsters - 0%
8. Crunch - 0%

Central (magic number 96 points)
1. Rampage - 100%
2. Wolves - 100%
3. IceHogs - 85%
4. Stars - 80%
5. Moose - 42%
6. Griffins - 0%
7. Admirals - 0%
8. Wild - 0%

Pacific (magic number 95 points)
1. Reign - 100%
2. Barracuda - 100%
3. Heat - 98%
4. Condors - 93%
5. Eagles - 14%
6. Gulls - 3%
7. Roadrunners - 0%

Now these are simply the results of the simulation and there a lot of different factors that could easily alter these numbers especially with Sundays deadline. As a bonus to this (and for not writing a Scrub Hunt thread this week) here is each teams Strength of Schedule (SOS) for the remainder of their games (2000 is the baseline anything above is more difficult and below is easier). As well as this weeks Power Ranking over to the right.

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Anyway, that's all for this week. Here's to teams showing me up and proving these simulations wrong these last few weeks. Also, make sure to tune into the Dumbfucks podcast for deadline deals, playoff picture, and more.

 

Wow cant u give use a 0.420 chance at the playoffs

 

Syracuse is coming back #elite.

 

Phantoms SZN

 

This pesky Wolf Pack.

 

I wouldn't

 

You're from Sudbury? I'm born and raised in Garson, On

 

manitoba imo, if you guys can manage to trap the way you guys did in the game against us every time, you'll make it

 

that makes 3 of us.

 

Moose baby 8-0-2 week we are coming!!!