We're two weeks through S14 and moving on into the mid-season grind time, with that I've decided to share a few things from some side work I've been doing. This season I decided to keep up to date with every game and to input it all into a database to calculate some advanced metrics based off a paper I read written by Alan Ryder on Player Contributions. It's a long ass paper with a lot of math involved but the short story would be he made a system that can essentially calculate how much an individual player contributes to their team's success, similar to baseball's WAR or VORP stats. I liked the idea so much I decided to make this season a test dummy to see how it works within the LG context. This means copy and pasting each game into Excel and then setting up a ton of formulas to calculate everything, literally everything, from those games to make this system work. Quite frankly, it's a pain in the ass but seeing the way it's shaping up already is making it worth it for me and now I want to share a few of the key stats and who the leaders are in each one. I also limited the pool for players to qualify for these stats by having it be that a player has to have played at least 2/3 of the possible 3 games per week so in this case 4 games and above. The first stat I have calculated in this database is simply a Strength of Schedule stat (SOS). The way I do this is that I take a player and add up the W-L-OTL for each of the 5 skaters they played in that game. The way my database is set up is that it automatically updates with each game that is inputted because it pulls the site user_id and keeps it up to date to where as soon as I get that game in a player's new opponents record will show up. The way I do this SOS stats is simply taking (Wins + (OTL/2))/Games Played. This calculates out a % of team standing points that this player gets. I do this with every skater for every game and add those up to get an individual players SOS to show how difficult their schedule has been. I exclude goalies from this because they can play double the amount of games in a week and their records skew things quite a bit. Anyway here is this season's leaders in toughest schedules played so far for both Fwd and Def. The next stat I have is one that anyone familiar with NCAA sports will recognize and that is a Ratings Percentage Index, or better known as RPI. It's a stat that's seen all the time when it comes to March Madness and the College World Series selection shows. This stat piggybacks off the SOS in that it is a weighted index. 25% of it is based off your record, 50% off your opponents record, and 25% off your opponents' opponents record (basically who your opponents played). This helps take into account skaters that played a potentially weaker SOS but their opponents constantly played top lines and helps balance out the final number more. So far, here are the top 10 for both Fwd and Def. On the flip side here are the bottom 10 players for Fwd and Def in RPI so far this season. Keep in mind that this doesn't mean they "scrub-hunted" because 25% of the number is based off their own record so players with weaker records will have slightly lower RPIs because of that. Now we start getting into Ryder's actual Player Contribution system. This system is broken down into Player Contribution Offense (PCO), Player Contribution Defense (PCD), and Total Player Contribution (PC). I took the final PC number and added in an RPI factor to adjust it based off a players schedule and who they've played as well. There's way too much math and formulas to show in here but basically Ryder's system boils down to what he calls Marginal Goals which roughly equate to goals above the league average. On Offense, its easy to calculate since there are plenty of offensive stats to use to find that out but Defense is a different story. What he does is takes into account positional weights based off the league that season and the stat totals for Fwd and Def. This basically comes down to two key numbers for the league which are Goal Creation Rate and Goal Allowance Rate which are done on a per/minute basis. These then allow for the final contribution totals to be calculated. Essentially higher numbers equals more contribution in these categories. Heres the top 10 for offense (PCO) so far this season: Heres the top 10 for defense (PCD) so far this season: And finally, here is the top 10 total contributions (TotAdjPC) that I added in an RPI weighting to as well: Anyway, I know its a long post but I felt like sharing all this shit with you guys. If you guys think I should keep sharing this weekly or if there is something else you'd want to see statistically let me know and I'll see what I can do.
I would be curious to know where my line is ranked in the strength of schedule, i'm surprised to not be top 10 tbh
(referring to the main post, not Snoki's reply.. lol) Good shit @DEATHS_SHADOW65 I'm glad to see you went through with this. I'll paypal you for 24/7 access to the database
I actually will have a G ranking later. I wanted to make sure the database was going to work first before actually spending time to add Gs to it only to find it's all broken.
My price was 750k but you guys said nahhhhh I'll PM you though Bon cuz I could probably use a second set of eyes to help spot any huge errors and I know you know what to look for
Weird does it show a link or anything to them? Cuz they pull up on my phone and PC. If not I could try to send them to you
