bigdiskk's ELO rankings - week 4

Discussion in 'Leaguegaming American Hockey League (LGAHL)' started by bigdiskk, Nov 10, 2019 at 4:49 PM.

  1. bigdiskk

    bigdiskk Member

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    Hello guys bigdiskk (aka big stats geek) here

    We all know EA has its own CR/ELO implementation, but what would it look like in LG? And how could this be used to mesure Quality of Teammates (QoT) and Quality of Competition (QoC)? Could we actually use this to get a portrait of a team's strength and weakness or its depth?

    I've been wanting to do this for some time, so yesterday I finally sat down (for about 10 hours) and actually got this done.

    Methodology
    So basically, what I did was:

    1. Grab every result for every completed game of LGAHL S34
    2. Build a database with that shit
    3. Implement my own variation of the ELO algorithm
    4. Processed every game and calculate key metrics
    5. Spit out data in a Google Sheet for y'all to look at

    About my ELO algorithm implementation

    Caveits
    1. If you start 9-0 and then go 0-3; your CR will be a lot more affected than if you go 0-3 then 9-0
    2. The players that faced JC Enterprise or Soxfan7744 at the season's beginning lost more CR than those who faced them in the last week.
    3. Every player's position on his last game is used as his current position. I could fix this next time.
    4. Trades don't happen until a game is played. So every one appears on the teams they last played with.
    5. Obviously, the best way to get to the top is to never loose. But playing a high number of game is also very important. For this reason I opted to exclude players with less than 8 games played.
    6. Big outliers are often the result of a trade. Keep that in mind...

    (If anybody has any idea on how to adjust the data for points 1-2 points, I'm all ears. I have a few idea, but the more the season goes on the less it matters, so I think it's fine the way it is.)

    The results

    So, for every team I generated the
    • Average ELO: Average CR/ELO of every player in the team
    • Avarage QoC: Average ELO of the competition faced
    • Average QoT: Average ELO of the line up, or line-up strength
    • Depth indicator: Average League Position Rank - An average league-wide rank of the team's players (per position) *

    * So, for instance, if a team has the best C (#1 rank), and the 60th, 80th, 90th centers, this team would have an Depth Indicator (or Average League Position Rank) of 47 (1 + 60 + 80 / 3 = 141 / 3 = 47). So while they have an amazing #1 center, the depth rating would be worst than the league average.

    League-wide
    • Player count: 504
    • Average ELO: 504.73
    • Average QoC: 503.35
    • Average QoT: 504.38
    • Depth indi.: 42.95
    Remember only players w/ 8+ games played are considered.
    Also note that the average ELO is greater than 500, but this is a zero-sum game, so the players that played less than 8 games are in average under 500 ELO/CR.


    Eastern Atlantic
    1) Bridgeport Sound Tigers (53 pts)

    https://imgur.com/XlGBNNI
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 567.80
    Average QoC: 505.55
    Average QoT: 531.11
    Depth indi.: 17.38

    2) Charlotte Checkers (49 pts)
    https://imgur.com/B0Un5e4
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 545.33
    Average QoC: 503.60
    Average QoT: 532.08
    Depth indi.: 25.41

    3) Providence Bruins (44 pts)
    https://imgur.com/KWmdP98
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 511.19
    Average QoC: 504.77
    Average QoT: 506.98
    Depth indi.: 41.29


    4) Lehigh Valley Phantoms (44 pts)
    https://imgur.com/gHA5TBm
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 519.60
    Average QoC: 504.34
    Average QoT: 499.05
    Depth indi.: 35.28

    5) Wilkes Barre Scranton Penguins (43 pts)
    https://imgur.com/lxc355G
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 519.46
    Average QoC: 497.68
    Average QoT: 510.77
    Depth indi.: 35.67

    6) Hershey Bears (42 pts)
    https://imgur.com/sBMhDFR
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 517.38
    Average QoC: 503.69
    Average QoT: 510.93
    Depth indi.: 35.33

    7) Hartford Wolf Pack (31 pts)
    https://imgur.com/7bbdj5Q
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 476.51
    Average QoC: 504.12
    Average QoT: 487.56
    Depth indi.: 53.46

    8) Springfield Thunderbirds (26 pts)
    https://imgur.com/nP4h6H1
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 447.45
    Average QoC: 504.07
    Average QoT: 473.42
    Depth indi.: 69.21

    Eastern North
    1) Rochester Americans (51 pts)

    https://imgur.com/R5JkWVi
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 546.55
    Average QoC: 503.06
    Average QoT: 525.41
    Depth indi.: 24.13

    2) Binghamton Devils (50 pts)
    https://imgur.com/0X1WGfy
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 527.52
    Average QoC: 501.23
    Average QoT: 511.25
    Depth indi.: 33.00

    3) Toronto Marlies (43 pts)
    https://imgur.com/Gx97nYU
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 503.22
    Average QoC: 504.12
    Average QoT: 496.12
    Depth indi.: 44.44

    4) Utica Comets (38 pts)
    https://imgur.com/0pLNCa4
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 484.22
    Average QoC: 502.56
    Average QoT: 500.80
    Depth indi.: 52.31

    5) Belleville Senators (35 pts)
    https://imgur.com/HvGUaZc
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 492.16
    Average QoC: 504.16
    Average QoT: 492.28
    Depth indi.: 46.88

    6) Syracuse Crunch (33 pts)
    https://imgur.com/UDM5bNK
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 473.38
    Average QoC: 506.95
    Average QoT: 499.35
    Depth indi.: 56.54

    7) Laval Rocket (32 pts)
    https://imgur.com/BHjpwxH
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 475.53
    Average QoC: 496.85
    Average QoT: 484.95
    Depth indi.: 57.59

    8) Cleveland Monsters (24 pts)
    https://imgur.com/Ad527LW
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 467.11
    Average QoC: 503.48
    Average QoT: 486.21
    Depth indi.: 57.06

    Western Central
    1) Milwaukee Admirals (60 pts)

    https://imgur.com/iH5sgR4
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 589.65
    Average QoC: 502.91
    Average QoT: 541.30
    Depth indi.: 9.82

    2) Grand Rapids Griffins (46 pts)
    https://imgur.com/SgT0qmt
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 532.08
    Average QoC: 501.02
    Average QoT: 518.82
    Depth indi.: 30.67

    3) Manitoba Moose (44 pts)
    https://imgur.com/NhA01hL
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 530.08
    Average QoC: 503.39
    Average QoT: 520.12
    Depth indi.: 33.94

    4) Iowa Wild (43 pts)
    https://imgur.com/cNOSiTK
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 513.19
    Average QoC: 506.24
    Average QoT: 513.17
    Depth indi.: 40.57

    5) San Antonio Rampage (39 pts)
    https://imgur.com/zT9XcbC
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 491.61
    Average QoC: 500.58
    Average QoT: 504.57
    Depth indi.: 47.65

    6) Chicago Wolves (35 pts)
    https://imgur.com/jFxbjz2
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 479.40
    Average QoC: 504.24
    Average QoT: 485.46
    Depth indi.: 53.64

    7) Rockford IceHogs (30 pts)
    https://imgur.com/qTwYUXV
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 467.66
    Average QoC: 501.80
    Average QoT: 494.82
    Depth indi.: 63.00

    8) Texas Stars (27 pts)
    https://imgur.com/9OAzceu
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 452.87
    Average QoC: 506.60
    Average QoT: 487.17
    Depth indi.: 63.47

    Western Pacific
    1) Colorado Eagles (50 pts)
    https://imgur.com/lN9plHQ
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 536.32
    Average QoC: 510.87
    Average QoT: 522.73
    Depth indi.: 25.29

    2) Tucson Roadrunners (44 pts)
    https://imgur.com/cAgh1nx
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 513.77
    Average QoC: 504.30
    Average QoT: 509.31
    Depth indi.: 42.27

    3) Ontario Reign (40 pts)
    https://imgur.com/sA0D9Fc
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 508.96
    Average QoC: 498.59
    Average QoT: 495.82
    Depth indi.: 40.81

    4) Palm Springs Firebirds (39 pts)
    https://imgur.com/WmiWJbi
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 493.18
    Average QoC: 505.80
    Average QoT: 507.14
    Depth indi.: 46.81

    5) San Jose Barracuda (36 pts)
    https://imgur.com/RdfqAWc
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 519.90
    Average QoC: 504.23
    Average QoT: 503.98
    Depth indi.: 34.21

    6) Bakersfield Condors (36 pts)
    https://imgur.com/ACoEaqX
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 471.59
    Average QoC: 501.80
    Average QoT: 490.77
    Depth indi.: 59.13

    7) Stockton Heat (34 pts)
    https://imgur.com/JJwW1MA
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 463.42
    Average QoC: 499.86
    Average QoT: 494.85
    Depth indi.: 60.81

    8) San Diego Gulls (31 pts)
    https://imgur.com/e9IzXwP
    [​IMG]
    Average ELO: 483.24
    Average QoC: 505.68
    Average QoT: 490.20
    Depth indi.: 50.75


    The complete results
    NOTE: I'll probably edit this 10 times. Some more analysis coming.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2019 at 4:58 PM
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  2. ScottLAX18

    ScottLAX18 No Look Top Cook 68

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    This is dope
     
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  3. bigdiskk

    bigdiskk Member

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  4. Broomball16

    Broomball16 Providence GM

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    Great stuff! Team without first liners here.
     
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  5. ncAALLDAY85

    ncAALLDAY85 Well-Known Member

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    This might be the coolest, most confusing thing I've ever looked at on the site b4! Thanks for taking the time/effort to make the league a better place with stats/media:D
     
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  6. bigdiskk

    bigdiskk Member

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    The most confusing thing is it makes some people look like Scrub Hunters because they're on great teams. If the 3 lines are firing, one still has to get the easier matchups.

    There also isn't enough games to have the ELO/CR stabilize to a point where the best players get very little points if they play the worst in the league.
     
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  7. TripAcez

    TripAcez Aye Stop De Puck

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    So in essence..ur good when u have quality teammates? Lol
     
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  8. ncAALLDAY85

    ncAALLDAY85 Well-Known Member

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  9. Manning x76

    Manning x76 Halifornia

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    Love it buddy ! Keep up the great work.
     
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  10. Yonnnnnnn x 13

    Yonnnnnnn x 13 Well-Known Member

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    This is elite media
     
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  11. JC Enterprise

    JC Enterprise Well-Known Member

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    @Grandpa Jagr u suck

    Great media though! This was a very interesting read and really appreciate it!
     
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  12. bigdiskk

    bigdiskk Member

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    Seems like I can't edit my initial post anymore.

    Here the complete league summary by Team
    https://imgur.com/v3VRF3V
    [​IMG]

    A few notable mentions:
    1. Seems like most team dodge the admirals or the Admirals got an easier schedule to start with? They faced the 22th QoC so far this season. But TBF, they bulldoze through teams so it definitely has an impact.
    2. The Penguins and the Reign and the Laval Rocket faced the easiest competition thus far.
    3. The stars might not have the best season so far, but they had the 3rd toughest schedule.
    4. The Barracuda must've improved a LOT because their Quality of Teammates is lower than the average Elo of their current roster. Gotta keep an eye on them.
    5. Providence Bruins and the Toronto Marlies are top 3 in their respective divisions, but their depth indicator isn't the greatest. Can their top players keep on carrying the backpack?
    6. Same thing could be said for the Roadrunners in the West: can they keep on winning at this rate with their current depth?
    7. Go Eagles! We keep facing the toughest competition. Looks like a lot of teams really want to see us fail...
     
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  13. BABYxTRUCK

    BABYxTRUCK Formerly Mr Mike Scott

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    This is fucking sick

    i hate your ELO ratings now @WingelsDGC
     
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  14. BigSaveNabokov

    BigSaveNabokov Well-Known Member

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    very nice, well done!
     
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  15. darz44

    darz44 Well-Known Member

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    This is awesome Disk, good job buddy
     
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  16. WingelsDGC

    WingelsDGC CHL BOG | LG Media

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  17. SamSchwartzy

    SamSchwartzy S29 & S32 Calder Cup Champion

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    Good writeup. Too bad the numbers don't understand how bad Utica is. Numbers are cold and don't understand what's up with the organization. You'd need a qualitative research to realize how terrible the situation is.
     
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  18. Dunks

    Dunks Well-Known Member

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    This dude spent the entire day in our discord trying to explain this and I still don't get it. This makes me want to drink again.

    I think the most important thing to note is I'm the worst dman on Colorado
     
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  19. QcKT Tsunami

    QcKT Tsunami Lord

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    Might need to had something like scoring factor or like defensive stats so you can see the real impact some players have but that's a really good start good work <3
     
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  20. BladesOnThree

    BladesOnThree Well-Known Member

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