CHL to AHL Points Conversion Rate

Sup peeps.

Have you ever wondered how many points the average CHLer would have if he/she jumped to the AHL? No? Terrific, you're in the right place.

As a former GM for quite a few seasons - it's always a question about how much impact, if any, would this draft pick or randomly assigned TC player have on my team. Maybe for some, this will just be a nice little thread to read while we all die slowly.

From what I've found, the conversion rate from the CHL to the AHL is .82 - for example: If Player X had 94 points in the CHL we could assume that the same player would score 77 points in the AHL when playing with average players. Obviously, there are always going to be outside factors that cause deviation in the stats but this is a pretty solid conversion rate.

Here's why:

You always want validation for your hypothesis and this model basically confirmed itself. Before I started on the numbers, I made an educated (10th grade educated, I didn't finish high school) guess that it is easier to score in the CHL compared to the AHL. More parity, better players and less room on the ice led me to that conclusion. The numbers back the guess. 95% of the players I used for this had less PPG in the AHL than the CHL which makes sense.

Players who scored 2.5 PPG or less in the CHL saw very little success in the AHL scoring an average of just 2.15 PPG while the highest scoring CHLers were harder to predict but, ultimately, had the better AHL stats.

CHL points (AHL converted points)

110 and Above (90+ )
100-110 (82-90)
90-100 (74-82)
80-90 (66-74)
70-80 (57-66)
60-70 (49-57)
50-60 (41-49)
50 and Under (41- )

With having to do this manually, it isn't as refined as I would like it to be but it is a pretty accurate assumption. This is not set in stone and it is still in the early stages but hopefully it gives some of you a better idea of the 'point gap' between the two leagues. Thanks for reading, stay in school kids.

 

strength of opponent is a variable that needs to be included here as well.

 

That would be great, I just can't do that maually. Wish I could though.

 

You don't even go here

 

Shhhh

 

Accurate

 

It depends of the season, CHL is weaker and weaker season after season.