Expected Win % and How It Would Impact the Standings

Discussion in 'Leaguegaming American Hockey League (LGAHL)' started by xCROSBYx l87l, Nov 8, 2018.

  1. xCROSBYx l87l

    xCROSBYx l87l Phil Kessel is a 2x Stanley Cup Champion

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    Sup peeps.

    Expected Win % (or xWP in short) is the Bill James inspired calculation of a team's expected win rate. In Baseball you would calculate it like this: Runs Scored^2/Runs Scored^2+Runs Against^2 (^2 is "squared")

    I get that it sounds odd, looking at it typed like that but it basically gives you an xWP based on the number of runs you score and concede. Here in LG we would replace a run with a goal.

    Here's an example using Binghamton: 92 GF 68 GA

    92^2 = 8,464
    68^2 = 4,624

    Formula: 8,464/8,464+4,624 or 8,464/13,088 = .647 xWP

    Binghamton's actual Win % is .657 so this tells that they are slightly better than expected.


    Here are the revised standings if we used xWP:

    EASTERN ATLANTIC

    1) Charlotte Checkers
    :team393: 22-4-6 (50 PTS)
    2) Wilkes Barre Scranton Penguins :team301: 21-4-8 (50 PTS)
    3) Hartford Wolf Pack :team314: 23-9-1 (47 PTS)
    4) Springfield Thunderbirds :team617: 20-12-2 (42 PTS)
    5) Bridgeport Sound Tigers :team315: 19-11-4 (42 PTS)
    6) Lehigh Valley Phantoms :team302: 16-15-2 (34 PTS)
    7) Hershey Bears :team350: 17-18-0 (34 PTS)
    8) Providence Bruins :team352: 11-21-2 (24 PTS)

    EASTERN NORTH

    1) Binghamton Devils
    :team305: 23-7-5 (51 PTS)
    2) Belleville Senators :team777: 24-7-2 (50 PTS)
    3) Rochester Americans :team312: 20-10-3 (43 PTS)
    4) Syracuse Crunch :team309: 18-15-1 (37 PTS)
    5) Toronto Marlies :team298: 16-13-5 (37 PTS)
    6) Utica Comets :team410: 16-16-1 (33 PTS)
    7) Cleveland Monsters :team317: 12-18-4 (28 PTS)
    8) Laval Rocket :team778: 8-22-3 (19 PTS)

    WESTERN CENTRAL

    1) Texas Stars
    :team300: 19-12-3 (41 PTS)
    2) San Antonio Rampage :team363: 18-12-3 (39 PTS)
    3) Iowa Wild :team362: 17-15-2 (36 PTS)
    4) Chicago Wolves :team395: 16-16-3 (35 PTS)
    5) Milwaukee Admirals :team390: 12-19-3 (27 PTS)
    6) Grand Rapids Griffins :team299: 9-19-6 (24 PTS)
    7) Manitoba Moose :team307: 9-23-3 (21 PTS)
    8) Rockford IceHogs :team349: 8-23-3 (19 PTS)

    WESTERN PACIFIC

    1) San Jose Barracuda :team519:
    23-4-7 (53 PTS)
    2) Stockton Heat :team516: 24-5-4 (52 PTS)
    3) Tucson Roadrunners :team618: 20-11-3 (43 PTS)
    5) Colorado Eagles :team626: 19-12-2 (40 PTS)
    4) San Diego Gulls :team518: 19-12-2 (40 PTS)
    6) Bakersfield Condors :team515: 16-14-3 (35 PTS)
    7) Ontario Reign :team517: 10-22-2 (22 PTS)



    Spotlighting the biggest changes:

    Stockton Heat :team516: 24-5-4 (52 PTS) - xWP of .714
    Actual record: 21-8-4 (46 PTS) - aWP of .636
    Change: -3 Wins

    The Heat should have 24 wins but find themselves pulling a Plexico Buress and shooting themselves in the foot - what gives?

    Penalties. Stockton currently has 227 PIM. That's good for 8th worst in the league and when your PK is running at just 76.6%, it makes a very good team drop the most wins in the projection. The good news is, if you remove the 'A' and 'RB' buttons from the controller... you won't take as many penalties.


    Syracuse Crunch :team309: 18-15-1 (37 PTS) - xWP of .527
    Actual record: 21-12-1 (48 PTS) - aWP of .618
    Change: +3 Wins

    It is better to be on the negative side of the projection because, as you can see with Syracuse, the projection (which measures just goals and goals allowed) has them at 18-15-1. As the season goes on, they will start to regress back to average. As a whole, the Crunch rank outside of the top 10 in most team stats categories - that shouldn't be a 21 win team and the projection sort of shows that. SYR aren't one of the worst teams in the league but they aren't as good as the standings represent either.


    Wilkes Barre Scranton Penguins :team301: 21-4-8 (50 PTS) - xWP of .629
    Actual record: 18-7-8 (44 PTS) - aWP of .545
    Change: -3 Wins

    WBS has been pretty unlucky so far this season. They are 8-2-8 in one goal games this season which is most of the reason they aren't at 50 points yet. It also doesn't help that, like Stockton, the PK and PIM are in the bottom half of the league. The Pens will be one of the better teams in the league come Week 8 and 9 but for now they have to find ways to win the close games.



    Just something I was looking up today and I figured I'd share it with you lovely people. Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
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  2. Too Much Twoco

    Too Much Twoco Well-Known Member

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    Great stuff as I think statistic based articles are often most interesting. Only thing missing in my opinion is to neatly show a +\- for each team in the standings as a result of this. If there were any major outliers like a +/-3 you could do a brief writeup explaining what caused the ranking and where you expect the team to ultimately end up.

    For example (and this is 100% Made up): Iowa has a +4 but it is the result of several big blowout wins vs weak teams. They will need a better goal differential
    Against the top teams if they want to make a serious playoff run
     
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  3. Tatawaka

    Tatawaka Not a 2 Time, back to back, loser in Calder final

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    Insecond wverything in this post. I really like this kind of article and would love to see the comparative standings or at least the current standings in your results.

    Good job
     
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  4. Laporshkin x 71

    Laporshkin x 71 Can we fix it?

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    Why does Syracuse only have 24 games played?

    On another note, I love that kind of media personally. Good job!
     
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  5. xCROSBYx l87l

    xCROSBYx l87l Phil Kessel is a 2x Stanley Cup Champion

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    Great feedback, decided to edit and make room for an explanation for a few of the biggest changes. Thanks!
     
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  6. xCROSBYx l87l

    xCROSBYx l87l Phil Kessel is a 2x Stanley Cup Champion

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    They had a '5' for L's instead of '15' - changed it when I added a couple of detailed paragraphs, good catch.
     
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  7. ThatZachGuy

    ThatZachGuy Well-Known Member

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    Facts. We suck!
     
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  8. NotoriousFAT 00

    NotoriousFAT 00 Media team member. Winegum aficianado. LG dad.

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    I hate stats but I enjoyed the article. Well written and clear.
     
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