Pacific Divison Preview and Projection

Discussion in 'Leaguegaming American Hockey League(LGAHL PSN)' started by memphisonfire, Oct 10, 2018.

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Who will win the Pacific?

  1. Reign

    16.9%
  2. Condors

    39.0%
  3. Gulls

    10.4%
  4. Eagles

    6.5%
  5. Heat

    9.1%
  6. Roadrunners

    3.9%
  7. Barracuda

    14.3%
  1. memphisonfire

    memphisonfire Well-Known Member

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    Alright so I've run all of the numbers on all the players post-bidding for each team in the division (working on the others afterwards). First, I'm going to put down the numbers based off the projections I've run using everyone's past stats at the position they are playing. Basically I rank every players entire season down to one number that encompasses all of their stats in one instead. So these first numbers are going to be the numbers based off the projection. Below that will be my personal predictions and outlook for each team in the division.

    Projected Ranks (Forwards, Defense, Goalies)
    1. Ontario Reign (1st, 2nd, 2nd)
    2. Bakersfield Condors (2nd, 3rd, 1st)
    3. Stockton Heat (6th, 1st, 4th)
    4. San Diego Gulls (4th, 4th, 3rd)
    5. San Jose Barracuda (3rd, 6th, 6th)
    6. Tucson Roadrunners (5th, 5th, 7th)
    7. Colorado Eagles (7th, 7th, 5th)

    Alright so that's just the projection based off the stat formulas. Now we're getting into the good stuff. The meat and potatoes. The stuff that separates the elites from the shitters.

    Memphis' Pacific Predictions and Outlook

    1. San Jose Barracuda
    There's a lot to like with this team. @TikleMySackic is back outside of the crease which can only bode well for the Cuda. The last season he was skater (S7) he put up 76 points (34 G, 42 A). Oddly enough, Sackic has actually hit that exact same point number in his last three seasons in the AHL. You can't get much more consistent then which clearly makes him the anchor of this forward core. Throw in players like @firepenguin17_ and @ROLLaBACKWOODS in the mix and it makes this forward group seriously potent. Their defense has quite a bit of experience and looks like they will be consistent factor. They won't be the best group in the division but they certainly won't be the worst either. Goalie is really the only spot on this team that I would say is a bit more on the weaker side but that still isn't enough to make this team falter.

    2. Ontario Reign
    Ok get it out now, putting my own team in 2nd. This team is built upon a solid D core and goaltending that stablizes this team. The big line of @GreasyLikeButter @mikelong11 and @DXDDABS and should put up some big points for the team on a consistent basis. Throw in LG vets like @ZeRo_SyMPoThY, @TOROK15, and @looper_61 to give the team some solid forward depth. The unsung hero of this team is @Schwartz-74 who despite how bad the Reign's season was in S8 managed to still be one of the top goalies in the AHL. Now, I know what you're all thinking "oh my god how do you do a write up and not mention yourself?!" I don't because I'm a shitter and will hopefully be staying in the background of this team throughout the season.

    3. Stockton Heat
    Despite however much I want to rank this team lower I just can't. @TheBobbyOrr4 and @Berrakov managed to actually put together a decent team. @gohawks48 has shown he's a good player in the past in LG but Stockton has basically handcuffed him to them with that contract, for his sake and theirs I hope he lives up to the contract value. Outside of gohawks though the rest of the team is decent but not sexy on paper. The one thing I have to bring up is that they have a few people playing different positions in LG for the first time, Bobby being one of them. That alone could potentially make or break their season.

    4. Bakersfield Condors
    The Condors come off a playoff season from S8 and have a lot of the team returning. @Shortshadey14 is coming off a career season of 86 points (47 G, 39 A). If this was a fantasy hockey article I would start talking about possible regression candidate in him but even if he regresses he's still got a career norm somewhere between the 55-60 point range. He's got teammates like @Dirtydeeds1212, @Bobby_Goggles12, and @VoltageFusion to pick up that little bit of regression though. Moving beyond the forwards though the Condors have solid netminders but their defense raises some question marks. A couple players coming off short breaks from LG and others coming mainly from CHL. Overall, this team is a contender to make playoffs again but they'll have to work for it.

    5. Tucson Roadrunners
    The Roadrunners have interesting pieces. @Buy_my_dogs and @Rowbo73 are the anchor for this team but I don't know if they're going to be enough to put this team over the edge. @Pezdemic and @Tommyallidoiswin are in for decent seasons but may end up in situations where they're being asked to carry the load more then they should be. @atomicstorm13 is coming off a good S8 in Milwaukee and will be a big part of the D but beyond that the D looks hit or miss. Some of the remainder of the D have had some good seasons in the past but it remains to be seen if those seasons will return or if they will be doomed to LG mediocrity.

    6. San Diego Gulls
    This team is extremely top heavy. @Frauts, @fireeyes2l2, @francey2325 and @Gutta_gun29 provide that heavy top half but the depth beyond that is questionable. @shepard-88- moved back to forward after spending the last couple seasons on D so we will see how that transition works for him. On D @Jg3542jg leads the group but beyond that it'll be an uphill battle for guys like @Bizness101 and @steelersfan26. @xMelom is a good choice in net but @VulgarGentleman is a mystery. He hasn't played G in any seasons yet but he's got an 88.2% SV% in preseason so far if that means anything.

    7. Colorado Eagles

    @alexander1032 and @xtoastyQcx have bigger contracts to live up to but @Mtl-cor is the main focal point of their offense. The defense and goalies are intriguing but not enough for me to think that this team will really be a big time contender. This team still has a chance to sneak up the ranks but it's going to take some good management moves.

    Proceed to shred this all apart in the comments. Also placing a poll to see who the community thinks will win the Pacific division.
     
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  2. xNav61

    xNav61 Well-Known Member

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    Should wait till transfer window opens before posting stuff like this. Colorado Eagles are getting multiple players added to their lineup included top 15 picks from the previous draft. Nonetheless good writeup need more of these.
     
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  3. memphisonfire

    memphisonfire Well-Known Member

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    I plan on doing weekly reviews and such throughout the season but these sort of previews take awhile to research and write so I wanted to get started on them that way I can get to all the divisions. Before week 1 I will be posting an updated prediction for the whole AHL to account for moves but it won't have the in depth write up with it.
     
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  4. ROLLaBACKWOODS

    ROLLaBACKWOODS Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the shout out
     
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  5. Maddens26

    Maddens26 BEAST MODE

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    Nice job, although i feel you ranked the Condors too low. They are easily 1st or 2nd in this division imo.
     
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  6. AllinFitness

    AllinFitness BEEP BEEP

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    Can AllinFitness be the shutout master again? or will he fall to his normal Shitty play..... stay tuned.
     
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  7. VulgarGentleman

    VulgarGentleman G

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    Watch out for this mystery
     
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  8. TheBobbyOrr4

    TheBobbyOrr4 Well-Known Member

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    We all know our team is number 1 but Memphis doesnt like us. But nice write up buddy, Well spoken and well thought out. Good luck out there sir.
     
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  9. looper_61

    looper_61 S6 Memorial Cup Champion

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    Mind revealing your formula? Would be interesting to see what numbers you add together.
     
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  10. memphisonfire

    memphisonfire Well-Known Member

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    Shhh Looper were paying you for shoutbox presence not to reveal team secrets. Trying to keep my formulas to myself for outside LG purposes. Still working on perfecting them to potentially use them as a new metric for NHL and don't want to give away my secrets.

    Short answer for the formula is I take into account every aspect of a players stats and weight the importance according to their position and then use that number along with their special teams effectiveness and what I call a players carry rate (basically their individual % of their lines production on O and D) as well as their value over replacement to make a full grade for the season and then take that to a per game basis to make my PER stat based off the NBA stat of the same name.

    As for the actual projections from there I take the players NHL equivalent PER from all their games played at every level that season and come up with a gross NHL equivalent PER for that season. Then from there I take the players most recent season at the Jr current position and multiply that by 5, their 2nd most recent seasons PER and multiply by 3 and then their 3rd most recent season multiplied by 1. Then add all that up divide by 9 and there is the projection. For players with only 2 seasons I did the same by divide by 8. For players playing new positions or not having played I gave them the league average replacement level as their projection meaning they could go either way. Basically the more data I have to sample the more accurate the predictions become.

    Ex. Using @TikleMySackic last 3 seasons as F in AHL (using just AHL stats here)
    S7 PER 16.8
    S6 PER 16.0
    S5 PER 21.6

    That would turn into [(16.8x5)+(16.0x3)+(21.6*1)]/9 = 17.1 projection for S9. But I'm sure people want to see how accurate the projection would have been for maybe S7. So now we take our S7, move the others over and add in S4 9.9.

    [(16.0x5)+(21.6x3)+(9.9x1)]/9 = 17.2 projection for S7. So we would be looking at a 0.4 difference between his projection and what he actually produced which is pretty close. Then if I add in the weighting to make that AHL equivalent instead of NHL he would be a 20.8 which would put him what I would categorize as the potential All-star range.
     
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  11. francey2325

    francey2325 Well-Known Member

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    Nice write up. Was a great read and nice to see my name mentioned for the gulls!
     
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  12. PR0D1GY_81

    PR0D1GY_81 Wilkes Barre Scranton Gm

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    You put Bakersfield in 4th smh, they numba 1
     
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