HeadLine [PVM] [S32] Wingels' ELO Ratings/Playoff Preview Conference Final Edition

Down to the top 4, who will make the cup final?

  1. WingelsDGC

    WingelsDGC CHL BOG | LG Media

    Jan 30, 2018
    Trophy Points:
    +371 / 5 / -2
    [PVM] [S32] Wingels' ELO Ratings/Playoff Preview Conference Final Edition - Down to the top 4, who will make the cup final?.


    I’m back, here’s the conference final preview for the playoffs.

    Here’s how it works:

    This rating system is similar to an ELO system that you may find in games like Chess and online games that have a matchmaking system ie; Overwatch and League of Legends. The system calculates a rating based off chosen stats that are weighed based on importance for each position.

    These stats are:

    • Winning Percentage, with OTL count as a half win.

    • Points per Game

    • Shots per Game

    • Giveaways - Takeaways per game, the lower the number the better

    • Offensive Zone Efficiency (OZE) which is how long it takes for a player/team to score. The lower the number the better.

    • Own End Efficiency (OEE) which is the opposite of OZE, how long it takes for the opposing team to score. The higher number the better.

    • Scoring Factor (SF) which is the percentage of goals that a player contributes to when on the ice.

    • Goals For per Game (GF/GM)

    • Goals Against per Game (GA/GM)

    For goalies, stats included will be:

    • Win%

    • Save %

    • Goals Against Average (GAA)

    • Shots against per game

    The "average" player will have a rating of 1000. Above that is better than average while lower will be below average. Each number is calculated by determining how good a player is in a stat compared to the median, which the middle value, which represents the "average" player in a stat. Players that are better than the median will have a higher number after calculations, while it will be lower if below average.


    The median for Points per Game is about 1.7 for forwards, so if a player has a points per game of 2.0, then the player is in theory, performing better than the average forward, and thus will have a higher rating.

    Each stat is distributed in a 100% scale, all in percentages, which will remain hidden as I am still a manager, and would like to keep that a secret for now.

    Each stat is then put into a formula to find the total rating. Most stats require the player to be higher than the median to be considered a positive factor, but G-T/GM, OZE and GA/GM require the player to be below the median to be considered positive, as the lower number in these stats the better. There is also a coefficient to raise the rating to a 1000 average ELO system, which is different for each league/position.

    Example Calculation for a NHL F: SF-OZE+GS+OEE+TEAMPTS%+PTS/GM+Shots/GM-G-T/GM+GF/GM-GA/GM x NHL F coefficient

    On top of the rating, due to the increase in difficulty in the upper leagues: ratings will be increased the following ways:

    • AHL F rating: increase by 20%

    • NHL F rating: increase by 35%

    • AHL D rating: increase by 20%

    • NHL D rating: increase by 30%

    In this article, you will see a graphic of each first round playoff matchup. It will show each team’s regular season record, as well as their current ELO Total Team Rating. Each player’s rating is weighted 70% season 32 and 30% career, and all 17 players equally contribute to the total rating. You will also see a ELO Based Win% which is the formula TeamA= 1 / (10^(-(Team1ELO-Team2ELO)/900) + 1). While this system is not perfect, I’d say it is quite close.

    You will also see 2 graphs for each team. The first is for the team stats, things such as win%, time on attack difference, goal difference, etc. The other is a line by line breakdown of each team’s ELO rating. This is a useful tool in seeing where each team’s strengths lie, and how they stack up to other teams.



    Hope you like it! Be sure to check out some of my other articles!

    What are some key factors to determine a defensemans skill?: https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...-when-determining-a-defensemans-skill.283675/

    My Top 3 Prospects From Every CHL Team(More draft stuff coming soon): https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...s-top-3-prospects-from-every-chl-team.284189/

    The S31 Moncton Wildcats Story: https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...-adventure-to-the-memorial-cup-finals.284604/

    And of course my ELO Ratings, which come weekly, here's the one from week 4: https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...ls-elo-rankings-power-rankings-week-4.286703/

    And be sure to check out the media team I’m apart of, Prolific Virtual Media (PVM)!


    Support the news team, like, comment & share your thoughts on their work
    • Like Like x 3
    • Winner Winner x 1
  2. KosmicEA

    KosmicEA Well-Known Member

    Apr 15, 2016
    Trophy Points:
    New Jersey
    +82 / 1 / -11
    Wingels loves LG :)