HeadLine [PVM] [S32] Wingels' ELO Ratings/Playoff Preview Conference Final Edition

Down to the top 4, who will make the cup final?

  1. WingelsDGC

    WingelsDGC CHL BOG | LG Media

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    [PVM] [S32] Wingels' ELO Ratings/Playoff Preview Conference Final Edition - Down to the top 4, who will make the cup final?.

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    I’m back, here’s the conference final preview for the playoffs.


    Here’s how it works:

    This rating system is similar to an ELO system that you may find in games like Chess and online games that have a matchmaking system ie; Overwatch and League of Legends. The system calculates a rating based off chosen stats that are weighed based on importance for each position.


    These stats are:

    • Winning Percentage, with OTL count as a half win.

    • Points per Game

    • Shots per Game

    • Giveaways - Takeaways per game, the lower the number the better

    • Offensive Zone Efficiency (OZE) which is how long it takes for a player/team to score. The lower the number the better.

    • Own End Efficiency (OEE) which is the opposite of OZE, how long it takes for the opposing team to score. The higher number the better.

    • Scoring Factor (SF) which is the percentage of goals that a player contributes to when on the ice.

    • Goals For per Game (GF/GM)

    • Goals Against per Game (GA/GM)

    For goalies, stats included will be:

    • Win%

    • Save %

    • Goals Against Average (GAA)

    • Shots against per game

    The "average" player will have a rating of 1000. Above that is better than average while lower will be below average. Each number is calculated by determining how good a player is in a stat compared to the median, which the middle value, which represents the "average" player in a stat. Players that are better than the median will have a higher number after calculations, while it will be lower if below average.

    Example:


    The median for Points per Game is about 1.7 for forwards, so if a player has a points per game of 2.0, then the player is in theory, performing better than the average forward, and thus will have a higher rating.


    Each stat is distributed in a 100% scale, all in percentages, which will remain hidden as I am still a manager, and would like to keep that a secret for now.


    Each stat is then put into a formula to find the total rating. Most stats require the player to be higher than the median to be considered a positive factor, but G-T/GM, OZE and GA/GM require the player to be below the median to be considered positive, as the lower number in these stats the better. There is also a coefficient to raise the rating to a 1000 average ELO system, which is different for each league/position.


    Example Calculation for a NHL F: SF-OZE+GS+OEE+TEAMPTS%+PTS/GM+Shots/GM-G-T/GM+GF/GM-GA/GM x NHL F coefficient


    On top of the rating, due to the increase in difficulty in the upper leagues: ratings will be increased the following ways:

    • AHL F rating: increase by 20%

    • NHL F rating: increase by 35%

    • AHL D rating: increase by 20%

    • NHL D rating: increase by 30%

    In this article, you will see a graphic of each first round playoff matchup. It will show each team’s regular season record, as well as their current ELO Total Team Rating. Each player’s rating is weighted 70% season 32 and 30% career, and all 17 players equally contribute to the total rating. You will also see a ELO Based Win% which is the formula TeamA= 1 / (10^(-(Team1ELO-Team2ELO)/900) + 1). While this system is not perfect, I’d say it is quite close.


    You will also see 2 graphs for each team. The first is for the team stats, things such as win%, time on attack difference, goal difference, etc. The other is a line by line breakdown of each team’s ELO rating. This is a useful tool in seeing where each team’s strengths lie, and how they stack up to other teams.


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    Hope you like it! Be sure to check out some of my other articles!

    What are some key factors to determine a defensemans skill?: https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...-when-determining-a-defensemans-skill.283675/

    My Top 3 Prospects From Every CHL Team(More draft stuff coming soon): https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...s-top-3-prospects-from-every-chl-team.284189/

    The S31 Moncton Wildcats Story: https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...-adventure-to-the-memorial-cup-finals.284604/

    And of course my ELO Ratings, which come weekly, here's the one from week 4: https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...ls-elo-rankings-power-rankings-week-4.286703/



    And be sure to check out the media team I’m apart of, Prolific Virtual Media (PVM)!

    https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums/index.php?threads/prolific-virtual-media-official-launch.289373/#post-1890754

    Support the news team, like, comment & share your thoughts on their work
     
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  2. KosmicEA

    KosmicEA Well-Known Member

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