Digging in the Crates: Primer Edition

Greetings readers! I really appreciate the amount of buzz generated by the article:

https://www.leaguegaming.com/forums...lion-reasons-why-im-better-than-darcy.276556/

The Cult of Darcy is out on in full force lead by The Chosen One - Blizz. They will see his honor defended no matter the cost.

I always MEANT to post this first so everyone knew where I was coming from with my scores and how I reached them. In between trying to be entertaining and informative, I may have sounded that I was writing to try and say who was the BEST goalie in the A with my OP.

I have not shifted my stance: I have created a measurement and I have assigned the ranks by an aggregate score. This will measure the VALUE of a goalie in these initial threads. I will also circle back around and take the RAW statistics and declare a 'best' goalie (even though the public clearly KNOWS it's Darcy, so why debate it) later on.

The rankings are based on three tiers:

Starter: 24+ games played through 5 weeks. It's an average of 5 games per week -1. Meaning tendys in this tier face a way bigger collection of the leagues talent.

Flex: 19-23 games played through 5 weeks. This is for tendys that haven't seen starter numbers for one reason or another but have played an average of 4 games per week -1 at minimum.

Back Up: 14-18 games played through 5 weeks. This is for tendys who play an average of 3 games -1. This is the least amount of games a goalie can play a week to even be ranked.

The tier you are in is based ONLY on the games played.

50 Point System:

This is the heart of the rankings from the OP. Each goalie is measured on 6 categories and they are broken down in a 1-10 format and are awarded points on the inverse. For example: Darcy is #1 in Sv% and GA so he is awarded 10 points for each category. No category is worth more than the other in this edition.


Sv%: This is THE stat that every goalie looks to first. How often do you stop the puck, regardless of shot quality. Without heatmaps, xG% or any advanced statistics, all shots are equal. The best goalies stop the most pucks.

SPG: This and the statistic formerly known as Quality (which is now Volume) are a measurement of how much the goalie is tested on a per game basis. SPG correlates pretty well with better stats : less shots means less chances to score.

GA: This is the counting stat that everyone looks to 2nd. How many times are you getting scored on in a Per Game average.

Volume: This is going to be the more debated stat, because I made it up. In the OP it was listed as Quality (because I suck at naming things) that did not accurately describe what I was trying to convey. In lieu of any advanced statistics I took each game a goalie started and broke them down into 4 sub categories:

• 20+
  
  
• 15-19
  
  
• 10-14
  
  
• <10

Each game is tallied into one of these categories and given a number. 4 for 20+ 3 for 15-19 2 for 10-14 and 1 for <10. This is totaled and then divided by games played to give your Volume stat. For example: Blindz faced 3 games of 20+ for 12 pts 9 games of 15-19 for 27 pts 8 games of 10-14 for 16 points and 4 games of <10 for 4 points. Total is 59, divided by 24 games played for a Volume of 2.46. This is the number that gives you the Volume 1-10 rank.

Shut Outs: The first of our 5 point categories. Shut outs are great, but fleeting. I can't remember how many times I've had a shutty going into last minute cheese just to get EAids and lose it with 8.4 seconds remaining.

Salary Value: Ahhh the bane of my OP. Salary value is the last of the 5 points categories and has the least to do with a goalie's individual skill. I can't help I got drafted 2nd round and I'm 1.25 just like Darcy can't help Caruch is and bid 4.25 on him just to trade him. I will post something later with no salary attached, but here we are.

That is how I calculated the 50 point totals. SV% 1-10 Spg 1-10 Ga 1-10 Volume 1-10 Shutouts 1-5 Salary Value 1-5. Tally it all up for a x/50 score and rank 1-10. For the Flex tier tomorrow and Back-Up tier Tuesday I will be posting using this method.

 

Check my analysis on the SPG category in your other thread... perhaps you'll weigh it differently if you agree with me.

 

This looks good @Waxibono
But one thing I would add is team rank that the goalie plays for. Top teams makes things easier for goalies.

 

"the chosen one" here - you can up with formulas all you want. It's nice to see media posts strictly about goalies... because as most players know in real life goalies are strange ( me included ). Back to the post, most people could careless about the formulas you come up with for stats and where you think goalies fall in, the fact of the matter as with ANYTHING on this site is that the guys who play more get noticed more. Darcy plays a ton, for example. same with @AngryFawn368505 @IX 212 XI and a few others. Stats mean nothing to people the only one that matters is wins. I've learned this first hand.

 

the truth is i know plenty of goalies with a sv% over 80 and a GAA of 1.5 that wouldnt hold a candle to goalies with lesser stats in a competitive 6s environment. the 5 guys in front dictate a goalies stats not his or her actual play 9/10

 

Definitely true but goalie’s actual play is also very important whereas an average goalie may save 4/10 breakaways/cross creases and a great goalie will save 5,6, or even 7/10. The one thing that separates average or bad goalies from great goalies is CONSISTENCY. Especially in LG. It does suck that good goalies on bad teams get bad reps while working their ass off saving 22 on 27. Give a goalie above average defense and judge them off that.

 

sorry @Mindhunter114 you're one of the guys who plays a lot of club too. Didn't see you in the listings however i did skim through it pretty quick.

 

again, this is about stats. cross creases and breakaways shouldn't happen. That's simply a defensive breakdown. you can't blame the goalie for a shot that shouldn't happen. Judge him on his ability to read the play, make a save where they should get a decent shot, not bail you out for 60 minutes with breakaways and cross crease passes.

I;ll be the first guy to give a Defenseman props for a great play , or a forward for backchecking, but there's only so much we can do. Cross creases are tougher then breakaways IMO, we have no chance on those as sometimes, we get caught watching the man instead of the puck and get caught behind the net...SORRY DMEN! Breakaways is a guessing game.

 

That’s not what I’m saying. Obviously it shouldn’t happen in a perfect world but it’s going to. And goalies have an obligation to TRY and bail out their Dmen as often as they can just as good Dmen do for their goalie. That’s what I mean by cross creases/breakaways. Great goalies can read the play and anticipate the pass, or stay squared and get in front of the shot more often than less talented goalies in this game. Regardless, bad goalies are going to have games where they have a 25 save shutout and great goalies are going to have games where they give up 4 on 7. Just the way it plays out sometimes.

 

@TheCheetahlo 33 dont take this the wrong way because im certainly not throwing any shade. however guys like @bl1zz72 and i who have been around for a minute or two know we've had some of our best seasons as a G with a 75% save percent and some of our worst with higher. christ look at my nhl stats and ull see. i won a cup playing terribly (thank you viktomize). the point is you can give up 4 goals a game and if your team scores 5 and you go 36-11-2 you still are in the vezina hunt. ive played G my entire career the SAME EXACT way. ive had great seasons ive had terrible seasons with myself being the control variable. the only difference being the players in front of me and whether or not i put enough curry chicken at Rammer's alter to not EA me.

 

So I don't know if you guys actually read the article that this is a Primer to, but this literally is nothing other then taking the stats the goalies have in the LG AHL Xbox league, season 30, and taking their stats and having them tell a story. I have addressed that it can't factor in shot quality, teammate or competition quality. Aside from that, it really doesn't matter for the purposes if these articles.

Blizz, if you had read not skimmed maybe you wouldn't be biting my opening from the original article and arguing points I've already addressed.

I welcome all feedback, and relish the discussions, but don't talk shit on points that are already discussed.

 

i get both sides of this argument. Waxi, while i really do appreciate the content and understand that you are using numbers to tell a story, it's still fiction. It reminds me of the Da Vinci Code or something else that uses some facts to tell a fun story. There will be some merit in it but at end of day goalies understand that to a greater extent than we would like, we are at the mercy of our teammates in front of us. A lot of it is that we are limited by some animations and so no matter how quickly we may see a cross crease coning, we can't get there cause we had to hold for the shot and animation is too slow. It's all up to defense there.

I know that for as great as I hear Darcy is (which I don't doubt), I could go on providence and have a similar record. Even goalies with a sub 75% sv (mine is 78.6 I think) are gonna have GAA below 4 most times. That providence team is averaging like 4 goals a game and so mathematically that goalie is going to win much more than they lose. Likewise I have seen guys 8-15 with an 82% sv and GAA under 2.5. By the stats, they would be better G than me but they have less wins cause there team can't score. On the flip side, the breakaways that get scored on them don't impact their save % as much cause they are getting peppered cause their teams offense stinks.


For fantasy football fans out there you will get this analogy: the game enables us to rank players in tiers. We can't rank those within the tier any further. Waxi' data may help to set those tiers. I wouldn't be in same tier as Darcy. But let's say waxi is. Thats as far as we can take it. After that it's too situational and goalies don't have enough control (if any) over it.


TLDR: love write up but it's fiction based on some facts. EA doesn't give goalies a way to standout significantly. At a certain point, it's about those in front of you.

 

One quick add on to my earlier post is that the mediocre goalies are much more likely to get exposed in playoffs. That is the one place it becomes easier for better goalies to distanc themselves but team still plays a role. Great goalie on a mediocre team is still likely to lose to a good goalie on great team

 

You're right, you are 1000% at the mercy of the team in front of you. This is our equivalent of fantasy football. These posts are purely entertainment. I'm a marginally better goalie then I was last season in Texas, but I've avoided the buzz saw of 10 goal games that tank your numbers, and have been a below average team. The numbers for this will always skew towards goalies on good not great teams.

But when you're 15-15-2, would I rather be ranked higher on my list, or would I rather have 25+ wins? I'd take the wins all day.

You're at 77% but you're 12-5 (last I checked) I'd happily switch plces with you. I want to win baby!

 

Out of my 6 losses 4 of them have been in overtime thanks to Bridgeport and their 12 OTL. I think 3 out of the 4 have been 3-2. I've got a sub2.5 GAA and 83 sv% .... Granted this year's stats are a small portion compared to last year. But it follows the points of the other goalies here, we're only at the mercy of the 5 in front of us

 

Tell you what: those "great" goalies are often sitting in the middle of their net completely back on the goal line. They're not challenging the shooter. They're not taking away the angles or doing ANYTHING a "great" goalie should. They're simply taking advantage of the game mechanics (and their teammates). Most goalies on good teams NEVER get to see a breakaway against them or cross-crease shots. I'd rather give props to a goalie that's working hard on a mediocre team, than slap the back of these supposed "ELITE" goalies that ride their teammates coattails.

But like @Waxibono said, this post is about a goalie's worth via the stats available. Because at the end of the day, 99% of the skaters who play on LG will care about the stats, nothing else. If you win, you're good. If you lose, you suck. Nevermind that you just stopped 22 out of 25 shots in an 0-3 loss, including 4 breakaways and 7 cross-crease one-timers.

If you can't win you are ASS.

 

Still tough to get noticed as a goalie. I would hope those who draft goalies dont just go by names but dig into previous seasons stats and take into account who was in front of them, scorelines and how close those losses were. But this is LG so names and “reputation” go farther than anything else

 

You’re welcome for those OTL’s

 

Tell you what, I'm super GLAD I was signed by the Laval Rockets. Every night I play, everyone is aware of the job I have to do, always encouraging me. Even when we're down on the scoreboard, and I pull out a good save, my teammates are always congratulating me and trying to feed off my play. They're a great bunch of guys and it makes me want to play even harder for them. Especially since management was told I was a bad goalie.

I don't give a FUCK about my stats. I just want to go out there and help my team win. If that makes me bad, so be it.