We're coming up to the end of the season, and while there's still a few games to play, we have enough information to take a deep dive into one of the more interesting trophies to be handed out this season. As Anze has played 2 more games this season then Giroux, all numbers will be broken down to a per game basis. Lets dig in. Goals Giroux: 1.36 Per Game Anze: 1.66 Per Game Assists Giroux: 1.52 Per Game Anze: 1.37 Per Game Shooting Percentage Giroux: 33.7% Anze: 45.5% Giveaways Giroux: 11.0 Giveaways Per Game Anze: 7.5 Giveaways Per Game Takeaways Giroux: 2.28 Takeaways Per Game Anze: 2.70 Takeaways Per Game Team Goals For (total team goals in games played) Giroux: 4.04 Goals Per Game Anze: 4.00 Goals Per game Team Goals Against (total team goals against in games played) Giroux: 1.44 Goals Per Game Against Anze: 2.22 Goals Per Game Against Plus/Minus Giroux: +2.12 Per Game Anze: +1.44 Per Game Hits Giroux: 11 Total Hits Anze: 221 Total Hits PIM Giroux: 12 Total Minutes Anze: 56 Total Minutes Total Counting Stats Giroux: 5 Anze: 5 Analysis: Not surprisingly, when looking at counting stats, it’s a pretty close race. This is where context becomes very important. Giroux plays center. By default, he is more involved with all aspects of the game. He takes faceoffs, he has to play third defender, and he often has to facilitate through the neutral zone or in the offensive end. This clearly plays in his favor while determining team value, in particular the hidden plays that do not show up in the traditional boxscore. It’s why his +/- is much better than Anze’s, as well as part of the reason that his team is only giving up 1.44 goals against when he’s on the ice. It also can go to artificially boost his offensive numbers, albeit slightly. How many assists has he gotten as the first or second passer off of a draw? While it’s probably a small number, it reinforces the idea that Anze is a more dominant offensive talent while Giroux may help contribute in the all-around game. While acknowledging that Giroux plays a more important position on the team, that doesn’t necessarily mean he plays a more important role. The elephant in the room for Giroux’s run to the Calder is clear. He’s surrounded by talent and has been for the duration of the season. While hes clearly a fantastic talent, he’s also had the luxury of the best defensive play in the league behind him. It’s impossible to say how much he makes his defenders better, and how much they make him better, but it can certainly be reasoned that the 4 other skaters on the ice – in particular, the defense - have been consistently better for him over the last 9 weeks. The foundation of Giroux’s case revolves around his record (24-1 for Giroux, 21-5-1 for Anze) and his defensive prowess. The case for his defensive prowess takes a slight hit when you consider the talent he plays with on the back end. Also, while I don’t think it should play much in the factor of the Calder Cup race, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Anze and Giroux squared up one time this season, with Anze’s line pulling out of the game with a 6-4 win. That loss is, of course, Giroux’s only of the season. Finally, there is one last storyline that I wanted to delve into. I’ve heard quite a bit about Anze ducking top lines and Giroux consistently squaring up against other team’s top lines. I spent more time then I care to admit researching these numbers to see if this story holds water. What I found was pretty simple. While Giroux did play a few more games against top lines, there seemed to be quite a few occasions where teams “mysteriously” had ECU level talent on the ice. It, of course, isn’t Giroux’s fault that teams were ducking him on the calendar. In fact, it’s a credit to the reputation he’s earned himself in one season. But the numbers don’t lie. In the 27 games that Anze has played, the combined winning percentage for his opponents was 56.81%. In the 25 games Giroux has played, the combined winning percentage for his opponents was 56.83%*. In other words, over the course of the season, Anze and Giroux played a nearly identical level of talent. Conclusion: Both of these players have been phenomenal all season. If the league continues to bring in top end talent like Giroux or Anze in the upcoming seasons, we’ll all be better for it. With that said, the two best arguments that can be made for Giroux – his record and his defense – share a significant flaw. Without true advanced analytics like Corsi or Fenwick, it’s very hard to separate Giroux’s success from the success of his fantastic defense. It feels like Anze has managed to do more with less, and that’s why Anze should be the Calder Cup winner for season 8. *Combined Winning % was found by gathering the win/loss record for all 5 opposing skaters on the ice for each game. This equates to 135 opponents for Anze and 125 for Giroux.
I think its going to Anze, but hits won’t be why - a few of these like PIMs also won’t matter. If anything, having Anze on the ice a lot less and having more points is more impressive.
I agree. I originally added things like 'hits' in because the plan was to try and break down play style as well, but the time got away from me, and I didnt think it was fair to write to something I hadn't watched much of myself.
