Mass's Rating System Test Results

Hello everyone, thank you all who voted on my other thread to help create the formula for this list. To those who didn't, I'll explain briefly. The LG site only ranks and puts a focus on record and points scored which is fine but not all players all goal scorers. Some Centers for example are very versatile good defensemen forwards and the good ones still put up points but maybe not as many as a dangling, toe dragging, fadazzler. This system I am working on is to show the overall value of a player's skill to make scouting easier and to hopefully rank players better. Don't be alarmed, if you can score goals and that's all you know how to do because you are a goat than you will still rank high for putting up good offensive numbers.

How does the formula work?

*UPDATED (7/31/18)*​

-Fixed Record issue.
-Penalty Minutes display correctly.
-Updated up to this day stats wise.
-Reworked the formula. Now a player is given a ratio of their stat compared to the leading stat in each category for their position. For example, if the leading goal scorer has 32 goals and a player has 16 goals, that player will receive a 0.5 for that category. The leader of that category would get a 1.0. Each category was then given a weight multiplier. The weights of all the categories considered adds up to 100. Meaning if a player was the best in every category, they would receive a perfect 100. For example, for forwards goals are worth 63 of the 100 points. If a players ratio was 0.5 they would receive 31.5 points out of a possible 63. (0.5*63=31.5) This is done for all categories and the totals are added up.
The weights and value of each category based on position are as followed:

_____________G___A__+/-__PIM__H___GA__TA___B
Forwards:___63___21___6____-10___3___-3____6____1
Defensemen:_10__28___19___-10___4___-16___34___5

*Note: The negative value categories can only can harm players so to receive a max score a 0 would be required in penalty minutes and giveaways.*

Top 3 At Each Position on 1st Test (Outdated: Link is updated)

LW @davyl4 (545.32)
LW @Shortshadey14 (530.82)
LW @althewall (520.11)
C @Dirtydeeds1212 (629.33)
C @CJ_x_58 (557.34)
C @Miikeyx09 (556.93)
RW @ThomaLong (718.80)
RW @l-MT-98-l (601.69)
RW @Kred_14 (547.16)
LD @dmac7719 (432.41)
LD @Lunchboxhero_ (384.75)
LD @HorrorSeen (378.98)
RD @l0wkey93- (450.55)
RD @Big_Gren (449.95)
RD @Tronthedon23 (405.28)

To see the full list go to this link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xys3ImP9WW6ok0bZ4ei-NhArIGjyPzIzcCmXyKupXVI/edit?usp=sharing

Love to hear any feedback if the list feels accurate or needs certain categories tweaked. The hope and plan is that starting next season I will do weekly or biweekly player rankings and who the leading stars at each position are along with a small breakdown of their stats and games. Hope you all enjoyed and thanks for the read!

 

I absolutely love what you're doing here, I'm a numbers nerd and love looking at these things. However, I think you came at it the wrong way. Your method assumes all categories are equal in the sense that 3.44 hits = 1 goal. I disagree strongly with this because a 4 goal game is infinitely more valuable than a ~14 hit game. Although maybe they are equally difficult to achieve, who really cares if a RW gets 14 hits? (it's probably a negative thing cause you can only hit when the opposition has the puck), whereas 4 goals will almost definitely guarantee your team the win.

I'm using myself as a baseline because I personally know more about my gameplay and stats than any other player on the list, so here's my reasoning why your values are off. I'm 16-1-2 with 3.11ppg and there is a player 0.04 "Mass Value" behind me who is 11-10-1 with 2.36ppg. The reason why he's tied with me in your value is because he has 71 hits vs my 1 hit and I have about 200 giveaways more. Sure giveaways aren't necessarily a good thing, but the top player on a line typically carries the puck more and will therefore give the puck away more. Just using the "eye test/common sense test" do you think 11-10-1 with 2.36ppg is just as valuable as 16-1-2 with 3.11ppg just because he gets more hits and less giveaways?

In the end I don't really think there's a clear cut way to value players based on stats that LG or NHL18 tracks. Some guys can make hits work, some guys just go for a lot of hits and get pulled out of position and it hurts the team. Some guys have a lot of giveaways but they make it work cause the giveaways are down low while trying to create offense, some guys have lesser giveaways but they are made in their own zone feeding the other team for a 2 on 1 against. Some guys have a poor +/- but it isn't because they suck, it could be because he's stuck playing in front of an ECU goalie and 2 ECU defense who were just lost and they gave up 12 goals lol

 

I see what you are saying. I might not have explained it perfectly well. So I made the baseline ratios like you were saying but then after that I multiplied them by another number based on how important I thought that category was so scoring has more weight than the other categories. For the forwards I think each goal was 7 points compared to a hit and assists were about 6. If someone has a 28 hit game without penalties (penalties take away major points) I think they deserve a good chunk haha. But all in all that's why I'm looking for feedback on the list so I can keep tweaking the values to make it perfect.

 

This rates me as a Top 10 RD. 10/10 post lol! Great work! Always nice to see an in-depth post breaking down the league. Makes the season as a whole much more interesting!

 

Althewall top 3 seems right

 

Well done @xMAssStAtiC-
Now do Goalies ;p

 

This is awesome Mass, nice work. The only problem I have is that it reveals what a shitter I am.

 

You fucked up you didn’t put yourself in the top 3

 

You suck with calculation.... premierpotato should be up there, smh not mad just disappointed

 

I wasn't planning on it since Nosleeves created a goalie formula already that the league is using so if anything I will just add another tab in my spreadsheet and put his formula in and of course give him credit.

 

<3 @Dallas1262x

 

I've updated the formula and changed the point system. Let me know what you all think. I changed the description of how it works also to reflect the changes I made.

 

Hartford still has the best two RWs in the league, all I need to see

 

I'm curious how you got the data from the LG website. Did you scrape it or is there an easier method I'm overlooking?

 

I had to painfully copy and paste the stats of every player. I did it by going to the normal stats page that shows the league point leaders and sorted by position and then you can highlight it all and copies over easily. Takes about 10min to copy every player over. My spreadsheet then sorts and changes everything on it's own. So at this point all I am doing is updating stats and if needed changing the weight of values. All of the "coding" is done.

 

Error on my side. My formula is correct but I didn't put the correct value in the description. Thanks! Also the way I looked at it was breakout passing for defensemen is a big part of the game and a higher give away means you are either handling the puck in the offensive zone more or you are making bad breakout passes. So I weighed it heavier than forwards because forwards tend to have a ton more give aways due to the fact they are handling the puck and trying to create scoring chances. It's less important for a forward because they are trying to score rather than make the smart, safe defensive easy pass up ice that is usually wide open. At the same time defensemen who are very offensive tend to have more giveaways too so to prevent them from being penalized too steeply I gave assists a larger multiplier to counter. So as long as they are getting apples, their giveaways can be a little higher without being penalized. These numbers are all subject to change and be tweaked. I thought this was a good starting base to go from. Same thing with plus minus and the other categories. I took it as how much their position should impact that stat and how important it is to their position. Some stats are obviously team stats like plus minus but good defensemen can weather that stat a little.