Post-Bidding Analysis and Ranking

Alright so I know I'm just a lowly AHL player but I like numbers...a lot. I can't help myself from finding new ways to evaluate players/teams/managers/etc. Maybe I'm a nerd or just a freak but I don't care either way, I still like numbers. Anyway, I decided that post NHL bidding that I would rank each team at each position (F, D, G) and then give each team an overall rank as well.

Now, before you go jumping all over me like "well Memphis doesn't know shit and these ranks are bogus" I just want to walk everyone through how I came to these numbers. Long story short, I have my own stats I've developed that allow me to boil an players entire season down to one number and then found a way to weigh that number so that it is relative to the NHL level/caliber. This way it keeps everyone, regardless of level, on an even playing field for evaluation. From there, I ran projections on every NHL player in bidding based off previous seasons to see where they should roughly end up this season and then took that into a team concept where I averaged out the 9 Fs, 6 Ds, and 2 Gs. I'm not going to go into any sort of discourse as to why each team is ranked where they are or individual players (it would take way too long to do) but here are the post-bidding rankings. (Note: these rankings do not include any DPs and is strictly based on as-is post bidding rosters)

Overall Rank (Off Rank/Def rank/Goalie Rank)
1. Florida Panthers (14th/2nd/2nd)
2. Boston Bruins (25th/1st/8th)
3. Colorado Avalanche (1st/9th/22nd)
4. New York Rangers (8th/8th/10th)
5. Los Angeles Kings (11th/7th/3rd)
6. Toronto Maple Leafs (4th/10th/20th)
7. Buffalo Sabres (16th/3rd/17th)
8. Edmonton Oilers (5th/17th/18th)
9. Arizona Coyotes (2nd/25th/21st)
10. Washington Capitals (10th/6th/15th)
11. Chicago Blackhawks (19th/5th/11th)
12. Calgary Flames (7th/27th/9th)
13. New Jersey Devils (24th/4th/16th)
14. New York Islanders (3rd/28th/24th)
15. Tampa Bay Lightning (6th/23rd/27th)
16. Anaheim Ducks (13th/16th/14th)
17. Minnesota Wild (27th/20th/1st)
18. Dallas Stars (20th/14th/5th)
19. Winnipeg Jets (17th/18th/12th)
20. San Jose Sharks (22nd/12th/13th)
21. Carolina Hurricanes (18th/21st/6th)
22. Philadelphia Flyers (12th/15th/26th)
23. St. Louis Blues (9th/13th/29th)
24. Vegas Golden Knights (15th/11th/28th)
25. Columbus Blue Jackets (29th/26th/7th)
26. Ottawa Senators (23rd/29th/19th)
27. Vancouver Canucks (31st/24th/4th)
28. Montreal Canadians (28th/30th/23rd)
29. Detroit Red Wings (26th/19th/30th)
30. Nashville Predators (30th/31st/25th)
31. Pittsburgh Penguins (21st/22nd/31st)



Again keep in mind that these are simply based off projections for each player based off previous seasons. This is not at all opinionated and is completely unbiased towards any team or management. Depending on the DPs that teams have and call up could drastically alter these ranks since these are just based on the official end of bidding rosters.

Now go ahead and rip me to shreds in the comments since I know it's going to happen anyway. I will also be doing this for the AHL too once AHL bidding is done. Won't do it for CHL though because there are just way too many teams down there.

(Added the full numbers since it has been mentioned so much)

 

Why didnt you wait to do this when rosters are final? Also what about players that change a position from G to F? Just curious

 

That was one of the issues I faced in there as well as Xbox transfers too. Basically for Xbox transfers tried to match their Xbox stats up with a correlating PSN player to estimate the number.

As for position switches I tried to only use skater stats for skaters and goalie stats for goalies. Projections were based off prior 3 seasons played by a player. If they had less then that I used what I had but the projections are slightly less accurate with smaller sample sizes and by accurate I mean regressing to the average more.

Basically the projection formula was prior season players stat times 5, season before that times 3, and then the one before rhat times 1 and then divide that total up by 9 to get the projected number. This way it evens out surprise anomalous seasons.

Also didn't wait until the final rosters simply because there is too much fast changing ebb and flow with trades and call ups to really be able to look at all 31 teams at one time and have them on a level playing field.

 

Nice write up

 

You should apply for ownership in AHL or CHL if you like numbers a lot and love evaluating players/teams/managers/etc. like you said. Nice write up. LG needs more shit like this imo.

 

Already am. AGM for the Reign in S8 and this season. But I plan on trying to write some AHL stuff using my numbers all season.

 

Good writeup! It’s nice to see what the stats say even if it means a shitter is in first place.

 

So are you saying since i switched my position from G to RW are my stats not calculated at all. Or have you applied my G stats to the current statistics of what MTL is rated as a goalie tandem? for my last three seasons as a G.

 

your team sucks nerd.. get shit on

 

Nice list bro

 

howwwwwl

 

(Off Rank/Def rank/Goalie Rank)

14. New York Islanders (3rd/
26. Ottawa Senators (23rd/
2. Boston Bruins (25th/



ok

 

For circumstances like that I just used the league average for a roster player that way it was consistent across the board and puts a player in a situation where they could be better then half or worse then half. Otherwise there would have ended up with weird situations where I wouldn't be able to properly calculate everything.

 

I have no idea what you did. At least tell people the projections that you used instead of just putting random numbers that don’t seem to correlate to anything. You have the capitals with a defense rank of 6 and a offense rank of 10. That doesn’t make any sense. You have the NYI as the third best offense and that’s all I needed to see to know this was a flawed ranking system.

 

What troubles me most about all this is our best rank is our goalie rank.

Meanwhile I'm one of the goalies.

I got my calculator, protractor, ruler out but for the life of me I'm not so confident I'm going to be able to figure this one out.


GREAT FUCKING WRITE UP THOUGH. I LOVED IT PERSONALLY, BUT THAT'S JUST ME.

 

I can make a more in depth post or edit this one by adding my actual numbers to it. I simply just wanted to write something I'd been working on. If people want something more in depth I could potentially try to figure out which DPs are getting called up and go more in depth by division or conference.

 

Nashville def not 30th in attack.. Just4-dube-fog-vex are all top tier caliber imo. Just not proven yet maybe but im pretty confident they will score lots of goals. Good writeup memphis.

 

This tho

 

I agree that teams like the Preds got the shaft in this but these were just the raw results of my findings. Without DPs factored into this it does put some teams in situations where they look less then ideal because they essentially have a placeholder on roster for now.

 

These rankings look just fine to me.