S12 Stat-based NHL team and standing Projections

Discussion in 'Leaguegaming Hockey League (LGHL PSN)' started by memphisonfire, Oct 9, 2019.

  1. DEATHS_SHADOW65

    DEATHS_SHADOW65 Well-Known Member

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    Alright everyone so I'm bored and when I get bored I play around with stats and spreadsheets and all that fun nerd stuff. I'm sure some of you know that I pretty much have no life and spend a lot of time running projections on players in LG. Guys that were in the AHL a few seasons back will remember the kind of stuff I did on weekly basis for my Scrub Hunting thread and the AHL show with Sibs, Markz, Philly and Don later in the season. Others may remember the pre-season, post-bidding projections I ran for the NHL before S9 as well mainly because you were probably shitting on me as a nobody who had no business posting anything like that in the NHL forums. Anyway, I decided to run a projection based off everyones rosters currently and tried to project which DPs are making it up as best as possible as well.

    Before we get into the fun stuff that will light the comment section on fire as everyone tries to burn it down, I want to preface a few things. First, DPs are tricky to project mainly because most of them don't have enough data for me to run an accurate projection. In other words, I can't project off of one season. Second, any players that switched positions I went and tried to find as much data about those guys in those spots. For some they switched from F to D but had played D in previous seasons so I was able to at least have a better idea of that players value for that spot. As for guys that have never played the spot, or had less then 2 seasons of data for that position, I just decided to play it safe and give essentially the average rating to those players.

    The main stat I used to run these projections was my own PER (Player Efficiency Rating) stat that I've translated over from an NBA stat of the same. I'll spare all the details of the stat because it would bore most of you and also because its my secret formula too but just know that it incorporates both offensive and defensive stats as well as the advanced stats on the LG site to essentially boil everything down that what a players overall value is. I ran a full projection on every rostered skater (480 Fs and Ds) as well as any DPs with enough data as well. I didn't include Gs in this list mainly because over the past few seasons I've realized Goalies are the hardest to run accurate projections for because so much of their stat line is based on the team in front of them. Anyway, getting sidetracked again, I then took those projections and calculated out the PER for each player and added them all up to give a team Forward Rating, Defense Rating and a combined Overall Rating which is simply the Average of the Forward and Defense Ratings. There's also an average rating in there too that simply takes the average of all 15 skaters rather then separating by F or D.

    Now I know this thread is getting a bit long winded but when I previously ran this similar type projection back in S9 I was able to accurately project 75% of the top 4 teams in each division, 62.5% of playoff teams and had 34.4% of teams within 3 spots of their final points standing within the league. Keep in mind that these are simply projections based off players previous 2-3 seasons worth of data. So here are this seasons team strength projections, divisional strength, conference strength, and playoff projection. Hope you guys have fun with this.

    [​IMG]

     
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  2. Hedmxnn

    Hedmxnn Well-Known Member

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    shut up
     
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  3. JClaus33

    JClaus33 Well-Known Member

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    Good stuff!! Best d core in da league
     
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  4. Vish x 91

    Vish x 91 Well-Known Member

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    @meka DVA meka hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah projected 7th in our division cause u blow
     
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  5. meka DVA meka

    meka DVA meka Bring Load Management To LG

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    @memphisonfire got all these stats but can’t make the playoffs. Consider me skeptical of these stats. (Disclaimer: good job on doing media tho)
     
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  6. zdball

    zdball Well-Known Member

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    Could be better ...
     
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  7. l Doughty l

    l Doughty l Jeremy

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  8. l Doughty l

    l Doughty l Jeremy

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    These canes though!
     
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  9. Cahspxr

    Cahspxr cowabunga

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    calgary way too high
     
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  10. xFran72-__-

    xFran72-__- Warning Group

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  11. Spooer69

    Spooer69 Well-Known Member

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    This is really cool! The best part of statistical models like these are that placements can be explained by the numbers themselves.

    People can argue that some stats are weighed too heavily or historical stats may not be representative of future results, but the numbers are what they are.
     
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  12. MarcoGoes5H0LE

    MarcoGoes5H0LE Well-Known Member

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  13. Zamne

    Zamne Well-Known Member

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    This fuckin sucks.., Cheers
     
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  14. PatJoyce_

    PatJoyce_ Well-Known Member

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    Weighing down your teams D rating feelsbadman .
     
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