S9 AHL Playoff Picture

Discussion in 'Leaguegaming American Hockey League(LGAHL PSN)' started by memphisonfire, Nov 24, 2018.

?

Which percentage underdog from above has the best shot of making Loffs

  1. Lehigh Valley

    31.8%
  2. Bridgeport

    18.2%
  3. Laval

    4.5%
  4. Binghamton

    6.4%
  5. Manitoba

    17.3%
  6. Colorado

    6.4%
  7. San Diego

    2.7%
  8. Tucson

    8.2%
  9. Cleveland

    4.5%
  1. memphisonfire

    memphisonfire Well-Known Member

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    The trade deadline is almost here and playoffs are right around the corner. As teams scramble to fill their last minute needs with Calder dreams in mind we need to take a look at who the potential contenders are for this season's coveted Calder Cup. To do this, I ran a simulation of the remaining schedule and calculated the results for each team. Oh yeah, I did this 100 times as well ya know for legitimacy.

    The simulation was done by:
    -assuming a 50/50 chance of winning any game (figuring out actual percentages would have been way too damn difficult) so in every game the away team and home team have a 50% chance of winning
    -overtime losses were not accounted for as a part of this
    -compiling all 100 simulations data into one set of numbers (yeah i know...yikes it was boring)
    -this data then figured out a "magic number" of the estimated points needed to guarantee a playoff spot

    Here are the results of the simulation as to each teams playoff chances:

    Atlantic (magic number 103 points)
    1. Penguins - 100%
    2. Checkers - 96%
    3. Wolf Pack - 91%
    4. Thunderbirds - 78%
    5. Lehigh Valley - 26%
    6. Sound Tigers - 16%
    7. Bruins - 0%
    8. Bears - 0%

    North (magic number 98 points)
    1. Comets - 100%
    2. Senators - 100%
    3. Americans - 97%
    4. Marlies - 80%
    5. Rocket - 19%
    6. Devils - 8%
    7. Monsters - 0%
    8. Crunch - 0%

    Central (magic number 96 points)
    1. Rampage - 100%
    2. Wolves - 100%
    3. IceHogs - 85%
    4. Stars - 80%
    5. Moose - 42%
    6. Griffins - 0%
    7. Admirals - 0%
    8. Wild - 0%

    Pacific (magic number 95 points)
    1. Reign - 100%
    2. Barracuda - 100%
    3. Heat - 98%
    4. Condors - 93%
    5. Eagles - 14%
    6. Gulls - 3%
    7. Roadrunners - 0%

    Now these are simply the results of the simulation and there a lot of different factors that could easily alter these numbers especially with Sundays deadline. As a bonus to this (and for not writing a Scrub Hunt thread this week) here is each teams Strength of Schedule (SOS) for the remainder of their games (2000 is the baseline anything above is more difficult and below is easier). As well as this weeks Power Ranking over to the right.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    Anyway, that's all for this week. Here's to teams showing me up and proving these simulations wrong these last few weeks. Also, make sure to tune into the Dumbfucks podcast for deadline deals, playoff picture, and more.
     
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  2. xMelom

    xMelom Well-Known Member

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    Wow cant u give use a 0.420 chance at the playoffs
     
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  3. GalchyTheBeast27

    GalchyTheBeast27 Well-Known Member

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    Syracuse is coming back #elite.
     
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  4. Userpic1306

    Userpic1306 Well-Known Member

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    Phantoms SZN
     
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  5. I-MT98-I

    I-MT98-I Stop Playing The Trap Against Me Please

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    This pesky Wolf Pack.
     
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  6. Maddens26

    Maddens26 BEAST MODE

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    I wouldn't
     
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  7. BarDownBrando

    BarDownBrando Member

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    You're from Sudbury? I'm born and raised in Garson, On
     
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  8. Fox_x_80

    Fox_x_80 Well-Known Member

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    manitoba imo, if you guys can manage to trap the way you guys did in the game against us every time, you'll make it
     
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  9. Pelley_

    Pelley_ First Round Bust

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    that makes 3 of us.
     
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  10. Axskull9987

    Axskull9987 Always have a suitcase handy

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    Moose baby 8-0-2 week we are coming!!!
     
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  11. LG McDonald

    LG McDonald Director of Hockey Operations

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    The moon eh
     
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